Insights
Perspectives from NJR Partners
Concise macro and portfolio commentary from the NJR Partners investment team.
By Nigel Renton · 25 May 2026
Japan’s economic transformation
Japan’s economic transformation A Structural Regime Shift: Japan’s economic transformation has evolved beyond a simple cyclical recovery into a powerful, multi-year secular bull market. The structural transition is underpinned by the permanent exit from deflation, the establishment of positive wage-price dynamics, and improved corporate pricing power that allows companies to pass through rising costs efficiently.
By Nigel Renton · 24 May 2026
Managing Supply-Side Shocks and Portfolio Convexity
Macroeconomic and Financial Market Review: Our review of recent macroeconomic and financial market indicators highlights a global economy navigating a prolonged supply-side shock, characterised by the three-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While global growth forecasts have been downgraded (global GDP down to 2.4%; US to 2.1%) and inflation projections upgraded, equity markets display a glaring complacency, keeping year-end targets unchanged. Central bank easing cycles have been aggressively deferred, with the Federal Reserve cuts pushed out to late 2026. Crucially for multi-asset managers, the structural shift in the stock-bond correlation to highly positive levels means nominal duration is failing as an effective portfolio hedge. Evaluation Against NJR Investment Principles True Defensive Assets & Diversified by Drivers Adherence: The macro backdrop strongly validates our insistence on a strict definition of defensive assets. With nominal Treasuries and Gilts experiencing high volatility and positive correlations with equities, traditional duration fails to insulate portfolios from supply-driven inflation.
By Nigel Renton · 26 Apr 2026
Macroeconomic and Portfolio Construction Review
Summary: We remain positive. Global markets are weathering the complex backdrop of geopolitical tension in the Middle East, balanced against surprising resilience in US corporate fundamentals. Fed Transition: Kevin Warsh’s path to the Fed Chairmanship has cleared following recent political shifts in Washington. While seen as dovish on inflation measurement, his desire to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet could introduce volatility into long-term interest rates. Confirmation is expected by 15 May 2026.
By Nigel Renton · 15 Mar 2026
Navigating Geopolitical Tail Risks and Stagflationary Impulses
Introduction The recent de-escalation in the Middle East has introduced a classic stagflationary impulse into global markets, simultaneously exerting upward pressure on inflation expectations while tempering growth forecasts. As we enter the third week of the conflict, the investment landscape is defined by "duration uncertainty"—regarding both the length of the U.S.–Iran hostilities and the persistence of energy supply disruptions.